Falling oil prices, the struggles faced by many small business owners and the high unemployment rate faced by people looking for work have all caused economic pain.

Collectively, the city sang the economic Blues, and for good reason.

But at calgary’s annual economic forecast dinner (CED) on Wednesday, mayor Nahid Nenshi said it was time to adopt a different tune.

“Welcome back to calgary,” Nenshi told the crowd of about 1,500.

“And to paraphrase that great economist LL Cool J … Hey mayor, don’t call it a comeback. We’ve always been here.”

While it’s not quite the lyrics to the 90s rap hit “Mama said Knock You Out,” the mayor’s dark points is the city is on the road to recovery – albeit slowly – and should celebrate its victories.

It also aims to address the deep pessimism that has permeated calgary in recent years.

“I think we’ve been in a comeback since 2015,” Nenshi told reporters after the event, noting the unemployment rate has declined in recent years – from 10.3 percent at the end of 2016 to just over seven percent last month.

“Things are getting better, but we’re doing a lousy job of talking about how things are getting better …

“And one way to do that is to talk about our success stories a lot more, instead of talking about doom and gloom.”

It’s hard to be positive when you need a job, have lost a home, or have seen your pay cut in recent years.

These are not minor issues.

However, some progress has now been made.

At a lunch on Wednesday, ATB Financial chief economist Todd Hirsch said he expected the city and provincial economies to grow next year after sputtering in 2019.

If current market access issues and the completion of the TRANS mountain pipeline expansion are resolved, it could lead to increased capital investment, growth and jobs.

“We actually expect the calgary and Alberta economies to pick up a bit of momentum in 2020. Two percent growth is what we forecast, ” Hirsch told reporters.

“It’s still modest, but it’s certainly an improvement over 2019.”

Other forecasts have similar prospects for slow growth.

For example, last Spring, the conference Board of Canada projected that the city’s GDP would grow by 1.5 percent in 2019.

With a pullback in oilpatch activity and other problems in areas such as housing, a new forecast is expected soon that will show a slight decline this year, said Alan Arcand, Deputy Director of municipal research at the conference Board of Canada.

Still, the Council’s initial economic forecast of 2.5 percent economic growth in calgary next year is largely holding up.

“We believe there will be a peak in economic activity in the province and in calgary in 2020,” Arkand said in an interview.

“You still have pretty solid population growth in Alberta and in Calgary. People tend to vote with their feet. If people are still moving and coming to Alberta and calgary, it’s a sign that there’s confidence that things are going to change.”

There are other reasons for optimism.

Last month, the Economist Intelligence Unit ranked calgary as the fifth most livable city in the world .

During her speech, CED Executive Director Mary Moran noted that the economy is diversifying, expanding into areas such as agriculture, transportation and technology.

Four of the five new companies in the city are tech firms, and calgary is attracting more venture capital funding for local businesses.

Companies such as multinational BASF Corp. , video game developer New World Interactive and Finger Food Advanced Technology Group were brought in to find here, she noted.

Major civic projects such as a new arena and the expansion of the BMO Convention center are moving forward.

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However, Moran cited research that found the perception of calgary as an innovative or entrepreneurial place is declining across the country.

“We should be a lot less divisive than we have been in the past. And that’s half the battle, making us all work in the same direction, ” she added.

“I think we’re turning the corner slowly.”

There are other issues that need to be addressed, such as the weak housing market.

The calgary Real Estate Board reported seeing some progress last month with less inventory, and with sales activity improving for the third straight month. Still, the base price for a typical detached home sat at $ 488,700, about 1.7 percent lower than the same period last year.

“We are not in the recovery stage yet,” Anne – Marie Lurie, the Board’s chief economist, said in an interview.

“We really need to start seeing more job growth.”

There’s no point adopting Pollyanna thinking while ignoring the significant challenges facing the city – and residents – in this difficult period of economic transition for calgary.

But we must not lose sight of some encouraging signs there.

It’s not a full comeback yet, but the journey back has finally begun.

Chris varcoe is a columnist for the Calgary Herald.

[email protected]

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