Unlike the last three years or so, both sides actually want to end the conflict, and share the goal of having the Kiev government regain sovereignty over regions in Eastern Ukraine now held by Pro-Moscow separatists. The question of what further negotiations should be settled is to what extent Russia will be able to maintain its influence in the area known as Donbass. This is a grey area in which reality is likely to challenge any formal red lines.

Zelensky, predictably, got into trouble at home after Ukraine accepted Russia’s key demand-to approve the so-called Steinmeier formula proposed by German President Frank Walter-Steinmeier in 2016, when he was his country’s foreign Minister. The formula States that separatist-held areas should receive special Autonomous status under Ukrainian law immediately after the Organization for security and co-operation in Europe recognizes the results of local elections.

Among the opponents of this sequence are Zelensky’s predecessor Petro Poroshenko and well-armed veterans of the war in Eastern Ukraine. They say elections are possible only after Russia regains control of Ukraine’s Eastern border. For the Kremlin, this condition means that Ukrainians can try to arrest their supporters in Eastern Ukraine before the elections – and before they fall under the Amnesty provided for in the Ukrainian law on the special status of the East.

Zelenskiy could have ignored protests in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Though his popular support is dropping — a recent poll shows it at 66%, down from 73% in September — his desire for peace in the east remains overwhelmingly popular. But Ukraine is a country at war, and veterans are a powerful force. Some of them proved that by effectively scuppering an agreed pullback of both Russian and separatist troops near the village of Zolote. Led by a nationalist former legislator, they have inserted themselves between the Ukrainian and separatist troops, saying they were there to prevent a Russian takeover of the territory that regular Ukrainian forces had been ordered to leave. Zelenskiy refused to remove them by force, saying persuasion was the better approach. The official reason Ukraine has halted its troop withdrawal is that the separatists haven’t ceased fire.

The Kremlin official in charge of Eastern Ukraine called the mutual rollback in Gold a precondition for the resumption of talks with Ukraine in the so-called Normandy format brokered by Germany and France. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his aides doubt that Zelensky will be able to withstand domestic opposition to the extent necessary for progress. But Zelensky is working to make the rollback happen, and eventually it will.

Meanwhile, Zelenskiy and his foreign minister, Vadym Prystaiko, are trying to reassure both Ukrainians and allies in Europe that they’re not about to hand Putin a veto on Ukraine’s future direction by letting him control the east. During a marathon 14-hour news conference last week, Zelenskiy told reporters that his team had “undercommunicated” its position. He has since used every opportunity, including a speech to the military in the east, to insist that no elections will be held in the crosshairs of Russian guns. “Believe me, I’m already getting an allergy to the word ‘capitulation,’ ” he told service members.

Darka olifer, a spokesman for Leonid Kuchma, who was Ukraine’s President for a decade starting in the mid-1990s and now represents the country in preliminary talks with Moscow, outlined the attacking position in a Facebook post on Tuesday. 

This is unprecedented clarity as to where Zelensky’s administration stands as the parties try to agree on a date for talks in the Normandy format. At first glance, this clarity is not encouraging. Russia has repeatedly said it will abandon demands for border transfer and disarmament because they contradict the 2015 Minsk agreements, which serve as the basis for negotiations. But there was no official rebuff from the Kremlin to all the Ukrainian publicity regarding the red lines.

Russia is the party holding back the final decision on the date of the summit. This deliberately allows Zelensky time for his campaign of persuasion while he tries to establish what progress might be possible in the negotiations. It is clear, however, that Putin does not want the peace process to fail; he has had, and missed, many opportunities to say that the summit does not make sense, as he has done in previous years.

Putin is tired of the status quo and the European economic sanctions that come with it. This is a good moment to move forward. The US is distracted by its political scandals, the leaders of France and Germany want the Ukraine issue resolved, and Zelensky is eager to keep his election promise to end the war.

Putin, an experienced negotiator, also knows that red lines can be drawn in real negotiations. An official Federation is not needed if some Ukrainian regions are run by Moscow-friendly administrations that Kiev cannot remove. Other compromises are possible, including the creation of an international peacekeeping force to control the border in the run-up to the elections. Even the disbanding of the unrecognized” people’s republics ” of the armed forces is not taboo if they are allowed to transform into local police forces permitted by the Minsk agreements.

It is important for Putin to ensure the victory of Kremlin-friendly forces in the elections in Eastern Ukraine. This would give him enough leverage to reunite Ukraine to abandon the people’s republics. Such an outcome could be achieved by finding a balance between giving Zelensky enough control to appease domestic opposition but not enough to put Pro-Russian leaders out of the running.

Contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky in [email protected]

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial Board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Leonid Bershidsky is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion in Europe. He was the founding editor of the Russian business newspaper Vedomosti and founded the website Slon.ru.

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