While the president elected American Donald Trump will enter the White House next week, there is an uncertainty on both sides of the Ukraine War.

The global is waiting with a breath to see if it will be the commitment of the United States with kyiv’s defense, or will conclude a guy in agreement with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

Trump pointed out his preference to negotiate with Russia, saying to a press convention on January 7 that sympathized with the declared considerations of Moscow regarding the expansion of NATO in its western borders.

Certainly, there are other people in Russia, Trump, Trump can accelerate the end of the conflict.

At the end of last year, Vladimir Legislator Dzhabarov described him as “with whom you can talk. “

However, in general, the Kremlin environment is more prudent, given Trump’s story its past presidency, which imposed more sanctions on Russia and weapons were sent to Ukraine.

“There is the same euphoria as the last time Trump won [the elections] and the jazeera drinks have been raised.

“Today, the Kremlin attitude is much more sober and ready for any scenario, whether there will be a new escalation and that Trump will propose a peace agreement, it is not expected to be a long time ago,” he said, the expectations that the Republican The leader will provide a forged proposal on which all parties agree.

“The intrigue of the total is that Trump, his team, the Kremlin, kyiv or Europe, nobody knows what will happen. “

In December, Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rejected the informed peace plans proposed through the Trump team, which understood that Ukraine abandoned parts of his recently occupied territory through Russia, which puts waiting for that the perspective is offered from Ukraine of the Otana. For 20 years and the deployment of European peace forces.

Lavrov said that Russia “certainly did not have the proposals made through representatives of the president’s team chosen to postpone the members of Ukraine to NATO for 20 years and display a contingent of maintaining the peace of the” British and European forces “” In Ukraine “.

Ilya Budraitskis, Russian historian, social scientist and guest researcher at Berkeley University, told Al Jazeera: “Understand the essence of this clash and the basis of negotiations are others between Moscow and Washington Bajo Trumparray

“Trump considers how to solve the border of the Russian Federation with Ukraine. From the point of view of the Kremlin, that of this war is absolutely different, connected with the examination of the existing architecture of European security and the spheres of the influence on the Post-Soviet space.

At the same time, Stanovaya added that Trump’s supporters in the West “an exaggerated attitude towards what Trump can do. “

“In many ways, the scenario on what Ukraine itself is ready,” he continued.

“This will be done in the long term of the conflict, how much the Russian troops will progress, how serious the resistance of the Ukrainians is, how the stage will expand with the elections and if there will be elections. These questions probably tell more than Trump offers. ” “

Meanwhile, the European allies of Ukraine care what can happen if Russia wins, specifically with Trump wondering the United States’s commitment to NATO.

“Trump has the concept that he has expressed several times, that European allies manipulate the United States and review to solve their own security problems,” Budraitskis said. But he pointed out that the United States had its own long -term interests in Europe, to which it agrees at the Kremlin.

Recent investigation through the independent surveys agency, Levada, to show that most Russians are happy with the way in which the war in Ukraine, or the “special army operation” to use the official lexicon, with more of 3 rooms interviewed that interviewed those who support the armed movements without stopping in Ukraine.

A development minority, 39% in November, even think that the use of nuclear weapons would be appropriate safe conditions.

More than part of the Russians speak to finish the conflict.

The type of anxiety observed at the beginning of war is to have established.

A Levada survey at the end of 2024 showed more than 70% believing that 2025 will be greater than last year, the maximum positive result in 12 years.

However, for the retirement of St. Petersburg, Elena, there are more concerns.

“In the beyond a few months, the large grocery store has higher in one and a part of twice,” he complained.

“Dairy products: milk, cottage cheese: I want a very intelligent cottage cheese; eggs, meat, butter. And, of course, those costs will not go anywhere, nor will they pass, because the situations [in our country] are there. “

The Russian economy has been carried out more than many Western observers. But the Mavens told Al Jazeera that this largely motivated through spending in the army sector to the detriment of other industries.

“The expansion of the Russian economy in 2024 compared to approximately 4%, which in itself is not bad, but up to two thirds of this expansion provided through the contribution of the military industry, without improving the life of The maximum Russians not worried in the army sector, “economist Olga Savochkina said.

“In general, Russian affairs have controlled to adapt and continue working under sanctions, reason more costs. Russia sells oil to China, India; Sale other goods sanctioned under the cover, for example, of the Kazakh goods to Europe and other countries. »

According to Vladislav Inzemtsev, of the Analysis and Strategy Center in Europe (case), “what those sanctions and all this army scenario provided is that it led the Russian economy to such a remote tunnel. “

“You can say that in the time of [the former president] Dmitry Medvedev, all those who talk about modernization, etc. is now absolutely a rumble . . . During those years of war and sanctions, it turns out that the economy increases, but that is It is not developing.

Inflation in Russia reached 9% of the year, expanding the hole for inequality.

“The teachers, the state employees, the minor officials and, of course, the retirees, lose because inflation exceeds their income,” IntezeMtsev continued.

“In addition, its intake is fundamentally aimed at these fundamental goods, which are the maximum expensive. Therefore, I believe that at least a quarter of the population, or a third, after last year, saw its source of income decrease. But other people who run in the service industry, small entrepreneurs, self -employed workers are obviously the winners because their highest nominal wages on average at 17%. »

Other disorders come with the unemployment rate traditionally low up to 2. 3%, leaving a shortage in the hard work market, and Russia’s dependence with respect to oil – Trump has pledged to develop US oil production, which, which You can lose Russian profits.

“The Russian economy is still based on resources and the budget receives a significant source of income from oil sales since Russia has been able to avoid the sanctions imposed by a” fleet of shadows, “Savochkina said.

“The expected construction in oil production in the United States can lead to a fall in global oil worth $ forty -five to $ 55 according to Barrel. Allow me not to forget that the value of oil exports included in the budget by 2025 is $ 69. 7 consisting of Barrel. Such a significant drop in the budget source of income will be negatively the country’s economy. »

On Friday, the outgoing management of Biden imposed a series of sanctions, particularly aimed at the Russian oil industry, as well as the so -called “shadow fleet” guilty of the shipment of products from around the world.

“The option I see is that the component of the sanctions can be eliminated as a component of a truce,” said Insozemtsev.

“But you see, I think that the abolition of non -public sanctions and the option to accept the Russian capital in Europe and in the United States can be a coup for the economy. This can lead to the capital and actually reduce expansion and undermine the general investment.

But Oleg Kouzmin, Renaissance Capital analyst in Moscow, believes that any defrosting in US-ruse relations can go far.

“It is difficult to believe that all sanctions increased overnight, but at least a transparent understanding that no other sanction came here and that geopolitical tensions would no longer worsen the existing degree of uncertainty, this would be favorable for [the Economy] and markets, “he said.