While 2024 is a pivotal year for U. S. elections, the statewide and district elections outside of the year before the midterm elections can set the bar for 2026 by offering insight into the evolution of party methods, voter opinion, and the expected public verdict on the president. elect Donald Trump.

With three special House elections likely to be scheduled following Trump’s Cabinet nominations, the GOP’s House majority could narrow to three seats, though the heavily Republican districts make this very unlikely.

Two off-year gubernatorial races may provide a barometer of voters’ willingness to embrace Trump-aligned candidates or reject the president’s long-term endorsements, providing early clues about his potential approval ratings. audience.

Lastly, the elections could signal a possible shift in the Democratic Party’s strategy or direction following its loss in the 2024 elections.

There are several state races to watch, special district elections, gubernatorial races and some mayoral races.

John Feehery, a partner at EFB Advocacy who previously served in the House Republican leadership, told Newsweek in an email on Saturday, “Republicans should start lowering expectations right now about what the elections means. Underpromise and hope to overdeliver.”

Since Trump has nominated Republican Reps. Michael Waltz and Elise Stefanik to Cabinet posts, their congressional seats will be up for special elections in 2025. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s district is also up for election. Gaetz resigned from Congress after being named Trump’s attorney general, even though he has since withdrawn his nomination.

In Florida’s 1st District, formerly held by Gaetz, Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, who is stepping down to run for Congress.

Several Republicans and Democrat Gay Valimont, who lost to Gaetz in November, are also running for the Republican seat.

Across the state, in Florida’s 6th District, another Republican seat, state Sen. Randy Fine won Trump’s backing to upgrade Waltz if he served as a council adviser. Trump’s national security.

In New York’s 21st district, Stefanik is expected to step down from his post after being appointed ambassador to the United Nations. Trump has officially endorsed any candidate in this race.

Low turnout in off-year elections may also bring unexpected outcomes to the safely Republican seats.

New Jersey and Virginia are expected to hold gubernatorial elections next year, as the two incumbent governors have mandates.

“Both the New Jersey and Virginia contests offer the Democrats a chance to reset their message as they look to rebuild their political coalition,” Kevin Madden, a senior partner at Penta Group, told Newsweek.

New Jersey currently has a Democratic governor, while Virginia has a Republican governor.

In recent years, New Jersey, a state that reliably votes for Democrats in presidential elections, has alternated between parties for its governor, opposing the incumbent president’s party. Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy was elected to Donald Trump’s presidency, while former Republican Gov. Chris Christie was elected during Barack Obama’s first term.

Democratic candidates include Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, U.S. Representative Josh Gottheimer, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, president of the New Jersey Education Association Sean Spiller, and former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill.

Madden told Newsweek that Gottheimer “has been one of the leading voices in the party seeking to draw its appeal more into the kitchen economy and less into progressive cultural struggles,” noting that his election effects may simply reflect a shift in the Democratic message starting in 2024.

On the Republican side, most candidates have supported Trump, while others, notably state Senator Jon Bramnick, have been more critical of the former president. The election could highlight the influence of a Trump endorsement or alignment.

Democratic strategist Michael Gordon mentioned Virginia’s similar trend of electing governors from the opposite party of the president, except when Democrat Terry McAuliffe won during Barack Obama’s second term while speaking to Newsweek.

Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin under President Joe Biden and Democrat Ralph Northam won during President Donald Trump.

There are several candidates in the race, none of whom Trump has formally endorsed.

Two prominent candidates, Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears, could become Virginia’s first female governor if they secure the top post.

Governors aligned with the president are more likely to collaborate on federal policies. Governors who speak openly, whether for or against the president, can influence the negative vote in elections in the long run.

Michael Gordon, a Democratic strategist and head of the Gordon Group, told Newsweek, “The November election, a year after the presidential election, is invariably a referendum on the president. The disgraced party will most likely win those elections. Natural cycle of politics.

Kevin Madden, senior partner at Penta Group, told Newsweek: “The politics of the 2024 cycle were pretty straightforward in the sense that the Democrats lost too much of the posh electorate and they want to win them back. This became a laboratory experiment for Democratic strategists who They seek to convert He points out that the leftism of the next two cycles can be corrected with a more generalized message.

Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, told Newsweek: “Next year is the first opportunity for Democrats to bounce back from a disappointing 2024…The next couple years will test which party can turn out their voters when Trump isn’t on the ballot.”

John Feehery, spouse of EFB Advocacy, told Newsweek in an email on Saturday: “Virginia is going to be difficult because it is actually a blue state despite its purple veneer, even more so because Trump needs to drastically cut staff. ” numbers. ” from the government. The trend is going in the right direction, but it’s also a blue state. New York has some characteristics but it’s still pretty blue. So I don’t think the Republicans will succeed, but if they succeed, that means “We have had a genuine alignment in elections in 2024. ”

The primary for Florida’s congressional elections is scheduled for January 28, 2025, and the general election will be held on April 1, 2025. The special election for Stefanik’s seat has not yet been officially announced.

In New Jersey, the gubernatorial election is scheduled for June 3, 2025, and the general election is scheduled for November 4, 2025. In Virginia, the gubernatorial election is scheduled for June 17, 2025, and the General elections are scheduled for November 4, 2025.

Mandy Taheri is a Brooklyn-based Newsweek reporter. She joined Newsweek as a reporter in 2024. You can contact Mandy at m. taheri@newsweek. com. Languages: English, French