(Bloomberg View) — a Government crisis in Germany could cost Chancellor Angela Merkel her job. But it is much more likely to qualify for Vice-Chancellor.

Olaf Scholz, German Finance Minister and Deputy Merkel, is the most obvious victim of an unexpected vote, the leaders of the social Democrats last weekend, during which two left were elected solidere party. This unexpected result has destabilized the ruling coalition with the SPD, Christian Democrats Merkel, and can lead to full-scale governmental crisis.

Scholz was a favorite title of an inch As the results were announced on November 30, his face turned ashen. Moderate, which is considered conservative in the SPD, he was fixing his career, views on the office. It was always unlikely, given the seemingly irresistible decline of the SPD. But in the polls he was ahead of some potential conservative opponents.

One of the reasons of its popularity among the General electorate is that Scholz voluntarily wears a ball and chain around the ankle is called “black zero”. Black zero – German jargon for a balanced budget. But it is something more: it is also the credo of fiscal righteousness, accepted center-right country. These days, the Christian Democrats, with commendable self-awareness and glee that black zero is their “fetish”. Run a deficit, on the contrary, must be that irresponsible Lefty to do.

So, Scholz decided to prove that they are wrong. The former mayor of Hamburg, who made a career out of selling their own dullness, Hanseatic understatement, he became a staunch defender of black zero. Again and again he stared down critics, domestic and foreign, from Brussels to the IMF, the ECB, and insisted that Germany would not budge. Its Federal account this year will show a surplus; the budget for the next year (luckily, held the day before the surprise of the leadership of the SPD) will be balanced.

Scholz and his partner took on three obligations to the members of the SPD. Clinging to the black zero, they will hold the political center in a General election. After a coalition with Merkel’s conservatives, they will argue that the SPD is trustworthy. And by doing both, they will save the party.

But Scholz did not notice how enraged the party base. A bit like the British labour party under the paleo-Marxist opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn, or American supporters of Senator Elizabeth Warren, a German social-Democrats are baying pokidat left. During a debate about leadership, even Scholz called for a tax on wealth, which he privately considers unhealthy. Members of the party didn’t buy his late conversion. When the elites of the SPD openly plump for Scholz, ordinary got even madder. So they chose two still left unclear, Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Boryana.

Fearing the kind of internecine strife, for which the SPD is known, Askin and Walter-Borjans now many years to offer an olive branch Scholz. They can’t imagine why he should resign as Finance Minister, they said, almost convincingly, on TV talk shows.

At the same time Askin and Walter-Borastapeter now must navigate political white water. They ran on a promise to withdraw from the coalition with Merkel’s conservatives. It would be a really long process in Germany, and politically risky for the SPD. Thus, the party must first be seen in search of good-faith negotiations with its coalition partners.

That is what the SPD will do to the party Congress this weekend. But Askin and Walter-Borjans mentioned three changes: increasing the minimum wage, Hiking the price of carbon in Germany in anticipation of climate change legislation, and, most importantly, to bury the black zero to make room for investment gold, worth about half a trillion euros within a decade.

You see the problem for Scholes. As it should be during those coalition negotiations, as both the social democratic personnel officers and black and zero the Minister of Finance? Even if the power Merkel will agree to put an end to the black zero (which is unlikely), maybe Scholz just to continue their work, now spending freely as if nothing happened?

To save his reputation, he may decide to fall on your sword. What will this mean for German politics? In the end, in addition to its rigidity on the black zero, Scholz recently signaled flexibility in another dispute, suggesting that it can, under certain conditions, to adopt a joint scheme of Deposit insurance for banks in the Euro area. (Even then, he put the devils in the details.)

Answer: Not clear. If the coalition survives, the place Scholz is another social-Democrat. This person may be more predprinimat in relation to the European partners of Germany. But Merkel and her conservatives will still eat, so changes may not even be noticeable.

And if the coalition fails, the conservatives will probably remain in the minority government, at least for a while. Then they will take all of the Ministry, and finances can go on the hawk. With or without Scholes, Germany is still not quite ready to budge.

To contact the author on this story: Andreas Klute in [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Timothy Lavin at [email protected]

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the publisher or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Andreas klout is a member of the editorial Board of Bloomberg. Previously, he was editor in chief of Handelsblatt Global and a writer for the magazine “Economist”.

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