A convoy of armored vehicles of the us armed forces will pass on March 5, 2017 near the village of Yalanli on the Western outskirts of the Northern Syrian city of Manbij.

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When President Donald trump announced the withdrawal of us troops from Northern Syria last week, tweeting The Endless Wars Must End! the gates of hell seemed to open. Trump has effectively highlighted the Turkish invasion of territory controlled by the Syrian Kurds, the most effective U.S. ally in the fight against ISIS, sacrificing thousands of its members to subdue the group and currently holding thousands of ISIS captives.

The withdrawal has led to warnings that ISIS will return to its glory days and restore the Caliphate. Senator Lindsey Graham, usually a trump ally, warned that a revival of the ISIS Organization is on the way. And if you think that only Europe is threatened, you are sadly mistaken. Intelligence officials, more carefully, seem to share the same view. On Tuesday, at the Democratic primary debate, candidate Pete Buttigieg also warned that trump’s decision would lead to a resurgence of ISIS, something that other candidates share.

The small U.S. troop presence was aiding the SDF in fighting ISIS, in part by deterring Turkey and the Syrian regime from taking over the SDF-controlled territory, which enabled the SDF to focus on the jihadis. Although Trump claims, We defeated 100% of the ISIS Caliphate, and ISIS has indeed lost nearly all of the territory it once controlled, the group has in fact returned to its insurgent roots, with thousands of fighters still operating in Iraq and Syria. Down but not out is a favorite description from experts. But are we really primed for an ISIS comeback?

Events on the ground would appear to justify the concerns. The Kurds are claiming that hundreds of ISIS prisoners have already escaped in the chaos that accompanied the Turkish invasion, though it is not clear how many of these are the family members of fighters and how many are truly dangerous individuals. Because the U.S. withdrawal happened with no planning and coordination, the United States was not able to retain control of several dozen high-value ISIS fighters, raising the risk that some of the most dangerous operatives will go free. For ISIS, prison breaks are vital, as they are desperate for experienced fighters.Indeed, its Breaking the Walls campaign in 201213, when it freed hundreds of hardened fighters from prisons in Iraq, was a key prelude to the building of the caliphate, allowing the group to bounce back from a devastating U.S. counterterrorism campaign conducted before U.S. troops departed Iraq in December 2011.

ISIS will also get a boost as its No 1 enemy in Syria, the SDF, faces mortal danger. The overwhelming threat posed by Turkey will force the Democratic forces of the SDF to focus their energies on Ankara. ISIS, especially in its depleted state, is far less dangerous to the SDF, and without American firepower and other assistance to help, there is even less incentive to focus on that danger.

Turkeys policies are a key question. In the past, Turkey tolerated the flow of jihadis into Syria, hoping their presence would undermine the Assad regime. In 2015, after U.S. pressure and a spate of terrorist attacks in Turkey itself, Ankara began to close the border and otherwise stepped up its efforts against ISIS, but there is still a large ISIS presence in Turkey itself. As its invasion suggests, Turkey prioritizes what it sees as a Kurdish threat, and it is willing to tolerate a greater danger from jihadis in order to counter its traditional enemies. So, Ankara has incentives to act responsibly, but its record suggests it might not do so, or at least not to the extent Washington would wish.

Still, while the U.S. troop withdrawal obviously helps ISIS, it is far from clear that the terrorist group will roar back or return to its glory days of 201415. Although ISIS may not be 100% defeated as the president claims, it has been hit hard. In addition to losing thousands of fighters in its battles to preserve its territory, the loss of the caliphate robbed the group of one of its greatest recruiting assets and sources of revenue. Similarly, it no longer was able to portray itself as a winner, another blow to its prestige. In part due to this decline, ISIS-orchestrated or inspired attacks in the United States and Europe have fallen dramatically in recent years.

Its hard to feel good about putting the U.S. counterterrorism effort in the hands of Syria and Russia, but they too are enemies of ISIS. While the Assad regime tolerated the group as it emerged and used it in its propaganda to rally world and domestic opinion behind the regime, the Syrian military has also regularly fought ISIS and considers the group its worst enemy. Russia also faces a large-scale jihadist problem: rebels from the Caucasus are one of the most important components of ISIS and want members of the group to die.

Much depends on Turkey, Russia and Syria, as well as on the subsequent policy of the United States itself. If Washington works with Turkey and pushes it to the priorities of ISIS, and if administration officials emphasize the fight against terrorism in negotiations with Russia, at least part of the problem will be solved. In addition, the United States can also launch direct strikes against ISIS using drones or special operations force raids, and otherwise prevent IT from setting up large-scale training camps or other infrastructure.

Unfortunately, the trump administration has not strangled the withdrawal of troops from Syria, which suggests that all this will not go smoothly. The United States is unlikely to try to negotiate or coordinate with allies or do more than noise their words through a tweet. So, in trying to anticipate how much the U.S. withdrawal will benefit ISIS, it is better to assume that any successor policy will be improvised, uncoordinated and flexible. If the new administration comes to power in 2021, changing course in Syria should be one of its top priorities.

The biggest danger to the struggle against ISIS and for U.S. national security in general is a long-term one: the collapse of U.S. credibility with allies. This problem goes well beyond Syria, with the Trump administration criticizing Australia, South Korea, France, and other long-standing U.S. partners while seeming to coddle foes and rivals like North Korea and Russia. Abandoning the Kurds, and doing so with no notice, is symptomatic of the Trump administrations disdain for allies, even those who are fighting and dying to keep America safe. Even the few supportive allies, such as Israel, are questioning the president. Although a new administration might try to reverse course, allies now realize that U.S. policy can vary dramatically with a change in administration and will hedge accordingly.

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