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Europe is paralyzed and China is trapped in a genuine patrimonial crisis. With the expansion of up to 3%, the U. S. economy was almost the only bright spot in 2024. America will continue to be the locomotive of the global economy in 2025 and may even increase its pace. Three points of this trend:

First, the US Government has higher mass debts to provide its citizens and businesses for monetary support. Americans invest and consume as if there were no tomorrow. President, elected, Donald Trump, has also promised to introduce a new “golden age”. The republican majority in Parliament will probably reduce corporate taxes and reduce bureaucratic obstacles, which will inspire corporations to make more investments.

Second, the Federal Reserve will loosen monetary policy. As inflation is only slightly above the Fed’s target, it will decide to cut interest rates further in 2025, which will provide an additional boost to the economy.

Third, companies in the U.S. will continue to invest heavily in innovation. It may well be that too many AI data centers are currently being built, but some investments will make America more productive. The internet boom at the turn of the millennium offers a good comparison – that investment surge was also accompanied by hubris and bad investments, but it produced new technologies and efficient companies such as Amazon and Google, which still shape America’s economy today.

With the control of the forced debt, the United States under Trump can overexplain its own resources in 2025. Its confrontation industry policy is also probably causing economic damage in the medium term, for example, in the form of higher inflation. However, these negative effects will not be transmitted from 2026 onwards. Until then, the United States will continue to be the locomotive of the global economy.

André Müller

It’s a bad year for the EU economy, and there’s a threat that 2025 won’t be any better. Europe suffers from better energy prices, a shortage of paints, too little investment and the war in Ukraine. In addition, the two maximum vital member states are paralyzed. In France and Germany, governments collapsed because they may not agree on a budget.

The scenario is delicate: EU countries want to invest more, while the deficits of 8 member states are so successful that the European Commission has taken legal actions opposed to them. This means that there is no effective for non -essential projects. In the call next to, the EU can barely stimulate the economy.

But it has some other option: an economic policy of the offer. In other words, create incentives for companies to invest more. To achieve this, the EU deserves in spite of everything to apply the 4 loose in the single market: the loose movement of people, capital, facilities and goods.

The single market has existed since 1993, but there are still many gaps. There are no telecommunications suppliers -European, for example, and classic banks only in a few countries.

There are two schools of thought in the EU: One wants to uphold competition and is therefore in favor of strict merger control – the European Commission supports this approach. The other is concerned about Europe’s competitiveness. It wants less stringent merger rules so that more large European companies can be created. France takes this view.

What is forgotten is that it is exactly the corporations that hold the blows in the face of namely competitive festival. But this insight will not be triumphant either in 2025. EU countries are only ready to advertise festival in the sectors in which they are strong. However, they save you this where they think they are weak. There is almost no escape from this dead end.

Daniel Imwinkelled

This year’s deficit in the French national budget amounts to more than 6%. Such major government deficits have only been noticed in France, in France, a severe recession or in wartime. France’s debt is expanding considerably. While the share is still less than 100 percent of pre-pandemic economic output, it will rise to 124 percent by 2029, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Two facets exacerbate the situation in France, namely, in relation to the United States, which is also very indebted. Your Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In France, public spending represents more than 50% of economic production, 30% in the United States, so the reach of high taxes in France is incredibly low.

Until now, bond markets have reacted to the precarious scenario in France. Buy unlimited amounts of French government obligations as soon as the country suffers an “unjustified” tightening of its financing conditions.

The tool eliminates market value signals. Consequently, the yields of the State’s bonds have risen slightly, so that French politicians do not see the need to restructure public finances outside the country. But in the long term, that calm created artificially is incredibly dangerous. The American economist Hyman Minsky invented the expression “stability creates instability. “

With respect to France, this means that the ECB protective hand would possibly save short -term turbulence in the markets. But it sowed the seeds for a potentially much more harmful and greater crisis. The fact that the old bond markets of the bond markets, the “bond guards” just play a role in France is a bad sign for the long execution of the country.

Albert Steck

On the positive side, the main central banks have made significant advances in the fight against inflation. The 2% objective set by the maximum financial government is approaching. And the fears that decent stability would have to buy with a recession have remained unfounded in most regions.

But the last mile is usually the most difficult, even on the road to price stability. Although overall inflation in the U.S. and the eurozone has approached target levels, this is not yet the case for core inflation – inflation that excludes volatile components such as energy and fresh food.

One reason is services. Inflation in this sector falls less sharply than that of goods. This is due to the sharp narrative in wages, which in turn can be edited through the scarcity of paintings. Because wages are sticky, but a giant proportion of costs for services, inflation falls very slowly.

The challenge is evident in the United States, where inflation has eased less than expected despite falling oil costs and where core inflation is rising again. The scenario in the Eurozone is a little better, although here too, it is not yet imaginable to claim victory over inflation. Switzerland, on the other hand, is apparently on target.

It is not yet known if new inflation threats will occur soon. Donald Trump’s choice has the construction of the threat that costs in the United States can accumulate again. Trump’s costs and fiscal discounts will increase debt and costs. The same goes to the expected expulsion of millions of immigrants.

It remains to be noticed if the measures will be implemented. However, there is wonderful uncertainty about the American course and its global impact. There is also a threat that the opposite combat to inflation will weaken and that the Government will be subject to an inflation rate greater than 2%. The indications of such fatigue deserve to be strongly monitored in 2025.

Thomas Fuster

The enthusiasm for Bitcoin was almost unstoppable in 2024. First the approval of Bitcoin index funds, or ETFs, and then the election of Donald Trump provided a price boost. Thanks to his call for deregulation and the announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve as a digital reserve currency, the value of Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark at the end of the year.

After Trump’s inauguration in January, the uptrend is expected to lose some momentum, however, the $120,000 mark will likely be damaged in the spring. Then it will be Trump, of all, who can also replace the trend. When asked why his bitcoins his bitcoins reserve allocation in the future, Trump may also say that he doesn’t need to spend many billions of taxpayers’ dollars on a million bitcoins. You may like Bitcoin, but you love the dollar even more.

One bad look from Trump would be enough to tilt the temper in the crypto markets. If the source of bitcoin remains an empty promise, the United States or other central banks will not be needed for inventories in Bitcoins. The government-driven hope of Bitcoin inflation in a security would fade, and with it, a twist of fate may begin. The cost can go back to $100,000 in a matter of days, and then less than $80,000 after a month. Bitcoin may end the year around $45,000, which would be a 57% decline, according to market strategists at BCA Research.

But it’s only Trump’s statements that can usher in a new crypto winter. A behind-the-clock correction in highly regarded inventory market apps in the United States would also lead to bitcoin creatures moving according to dictated actions, but they vary much more. A market opportunity, such as Microstrategy’s cave, can also spur an accident. The tech company with a MarketPlacePlace capitalization of $90 billion has made Bitcoin Investments its business model. And it is financed through debt: these excesses are a warning sign.

Eflamm Mordrelle