Christopher Douglas is an associate Professor of Economics at the University of Michigan-flint and a member of the Board of scholars at the Mackinac center for public policy. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own.
United auto workers and General Motors have finally reached a tentative agreement, though the strike continues. Long work stoppages are rare in today’s economy, making this long strike an anomaly. This is also abnormal because the tentative agreement seems very similar to the earlier GM offers that the UAW rejected. The entire trial cost hundreds of millions of dollars in lost wages for workers and lost profits for the company, and neither side really gained much.
Indeed, UAW members appear to have lost that fight. It’s hard to calculate the exact impact on a typical GM employee, but it’s possible that many of them will only net a small financial benefit from the new deal.
Consider that employees had to go without pay for more than four weeks. The pay differences they will receive in the pre-agreement compared to what they would have received without the strike could be enough to fill what they have already donated.
GM, meanwhile, has reportedly lost more than $ 1.5 billion in profits due to the shutdown, but the losses could be much smaller. GM increased its stock of cars at dealerships before the strike and reportedly has an 80-day inventory of lucrative pickups and SUVs on hand. Because of this, it is unlikely that the company lost a lot of sales due to the strike.
The tentative agreementdoes not look to be dramatically different from the one GM put on the table — and UAW leadership rejected — over a month ago. GM will keep union members’ health care contributions at 3% — a great deal for workers. But GM was reportedly already willing to maintain this benefit on the eve of the strike. GM workers are also said to be in line for 3% base-wage increases in the second and fourth years of the contract and 4% lump sum bonuses in the first and third years, and permanent employees will receive an estimated $11,000 bonus if the tentative agreement is ratified. GM offered pay raises and lump-sum bonusesand an $8,000 ratification bonus before the strike.
Other provisions in the latest agreement include a reported $ 1,000 in employee havens for $ 1 billion in pre-tax profits. GM’s initial offer capped it at $ 12,000, but the tentative agreement lifts the lid. Last year, Gm workers made $ 10,750 through this arrangement, which existed in a previous contract.
The UAW also wanted a plan to restore production at idle plants, particularly in Lordstown, Ohio, and Hamtramck, Michigan. GM idled these plants during its previous contract, declaring the plants “Unallocated,” meaning the plant would have no product to create, instead closing them outright to avoid having to negotiate their closure with the Union. The UAW wanted a plan to reopen these plants. A tentative agreement appears to keep the Hamtramck plant open to build a new electric pickup, but the Lordstown plant will remain closed.
The tentative agreement also includes additional investment in U.S. factories and job protections. GM initially proposed investing $ 7 billion in the United States and creating or protecting 5,400 jobs. The tentative agreement reportedly increased that to 9,000 jobs and $ 8.3 billion in investment. Putting temporary workers on the path to full employment is also a Union requirement, but it is unclear how this played out in the preliminary agreement.
The market seems to agree that GM has won this fight. The company’s share price over the past year shows a marked decline due to the strike, but it is relatively small only about 7%. Compare that to the devastating 54-day strike in mid-1998, which cost the company 500,000 car sales and more than $ 2 billion in net losses.
There is always a risk that a new contract will increase the costs of the company and put it on the path of bankruptcy. However, the details of the contract that have emerged so far suggest that this is not the case. It is still too early to declare a winner from the strike, but early indications suggest that workers may have received little while GM, in turn, donated little.
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