FOREX-Euro rises with ECB tightening, Swiss franc jumps

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* The euro rises, focuses on emerging rates

* Pauses after recent earnings

* The Swiss franc at multi-week highs after the SNB’s bellicose turn

* Norwegian krone rebounds from lows

* Chart: https://tmsnrt. rs/2RBWI5E exchange rates (adds background, analyst comments)

By Stefano Rebaudo

May 19 (Reuters) – The euro rose on Thursday as investors weighed the option of a short-term competitive tightening by the European Central Bank, while the safe-haven dollar stalled after strong gains in previous sessions.

Money markets expect an ECB rate hike of around 105 basis points (bps) from around 95 bps on Tuesday before ECB chief Klaas Knot only pointed out that a 50 basis point rate hike was imaginable in July.

U. S. Cash Markets The U. S. Government still expects about two hundred fundamental issuances of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve through December 2022.

Risk appetite in the forex market is fragile as stocks fell, following Wall Street’s worst day since mid-2020, as warnings from some of the world’s largest stores underscored inflation.

However, some analysts have taken a more positive view of the global economy and risky currencies on expectations of an easing of restrictions in China.

On Thursday, more Shanghai citizens were given the freedom to shop for the first time in just two months, as the government drew up more plans to completely exit the citywide COVID-19 lockdown.

“We are relatively bullish on dicy currencies against the U. S. dollar, adding the euro and sterling, as market considerations about global expansion are excessive,” said Matthew Ryan, senior market analyst at Ebury.

“We will see a significant rebound once we succeed at a level where China begins to materially lift its COVID restrictions,” he added. “We think the global economy will remain a little higher than some economists expect this year. “

The dollar index, which tracks the opposition of six primary pairs, fell 0. 5% to 103. 3 after jumping 0. 55% on Wednesday, ending a three-day losing streak.

“We argue that a tipping point is approaching (for the U. S. dollar after recent gains),” George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank’s global currency chief, said in a note.

“Because we are now at a level where further deterioration in monetary situations undermines Fed tightening expectations, while much more tightening is still expected for the rest of the world, especially Europe,” he added.

The euro appreciated 0. 3% to 1. 0488 the dollar.

The Swiss franc rose 1% against the euro and the dollar after Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan signaled on Wednesday that the SNB is in a position to act if inflationary pressures continue.

The SNB has become so attached to its ultra-lax policy.

The Swiss franc hit a two-week high against the dollar and a three-week high against the single currency at 0. 9751 and 1. 0227 respectively.

The Norwegian krone rose 0. 5% after reaching its lowest point since December 2021 against the euro and May 2020 against the dollar.

BofA analysts said Norges Bank’s aggressive stance was undervalued in the market, while they had a positive view of oil costs, which have a strong positive correlation with the currency, as concerns about China fade towards the end of the year.

The Japanese yen, which lost ground to March and April, has weakened recently.

It rose 0. 4% to 127. 6 on Thursday.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan said it intends to stick to its accommodative stance and financial stimulus to create lasting value gains.

Ryan d’Ebury sees a rally in the yen, but has a bearish view in the medium term due to the divergence in financial policy between the Bank of Japan and the Fed.

“As long as considerations about inflation and a possible economic slowdown dominate the narrative, the yen may once again become the preferred destination, or at least one of the preferred safe-haven destinations for currency traders,” he said.

The solid economic knowledge fueling adjustment expectations in Australia and Canada supported their currencies.

Bitcoin fell around 0. 5% and the last time it was traded was $28,988. Ether is up 1. 5% but still below $2000. (Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Edited through Angus MacSwan and Barbara Lewis)

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