Investors in major German automakers such as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes have little to worry about Sunday’s national general election, with top pollsters saying the race is too close to be announced and that the maximum final results would likely be a broad but weak coalition, probably not maximum to scare away horses. .

But as the election approaches, the ballot boxes are getting stricter and an unprecedented number of undecided votes.

According to a recent vote through Allensbach’s institute of studies for the conservative frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper, quoted via Reuters a week ago, 40% of the electorate is still undecided, at 35% at this level of the electoral crusade in 2017 and only 24% in 2013.

The electoral problems facing the auto industry come with setting a date to end the sale of internal combustion engines (IDEs) on the climate change call, a timeline for net carbon dioxide emissions and carbon taxes. some of Germany’s unrestricted intercity motorways.

And don’t expect former Chancellor Angela Merkel of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) to disappear overnight, even though she has announced her retirement, she will remain chancellor until a government is formed. Due to the proportional representation voting formula in Germany, after the last elections in 2017, it took 6 months to shape a government. Sunday’s election can simply galvanize a scenario.

Investment bank UBS said on Wednesday that recent German elections rarely led to radical change, politics is on the move.

“Historically, elections in Germany have been a major fear for investors, as the electoral formula promotes stability and evolution. Although this is still the case, the balance of political force in German politics is changing,” UBS said in a report.

UBS said opinion polls make the race too close for any party to have a convincing lead. The next government will likely be at most a tripartite coalition “for the first time in decades. Polls show a coalition led by the leftist Social Democratic Party. (SPD) is the maximum probably maximum.

“However, with the number of insecure electorates in recent memory, other outcomes are very possible,” UBS said.

The main problems faced by opposing parties in relation to the automotive industry are as follows:

CDU: it needs technology, not politics, to lead the race to decrease CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions (EU regulations favor electric batteries), it does not need to set a date to ban sales of ICE cars, no more road structure for traffic jams, supports the progression of artificial fuels and hydrogen.

SPD – Continue with taxpayer cash to buy electric cars, subsidize charging networks, no end date for ICE sales, completion of unlimited speed roads.

Green: Stop making ICE cars until 2030, end unlimited speed, no more new roads, finish one hundred billion euros ($117 billion) in rail.

Free Democratic Party (FDP-conservative): opposes the end of unlimited speed, opposes the European Union’s (EU) CO2 targets for 2030, ends subsidies for new electric cars that now reach €9,000 (€10,500) in some cases.

According to Roger Bootle, a columnist for the Daily Telegraph of London, the German car industry is under pressure.

In addition to stiffer competition, its classic excellence in engine production has recently been undermined by scandals over diesel (VW’s dieselgate). And now the German auto industry is facing a total replacement in the surrounding area with the switch to electric cars and perhaps, ultimately, driverless cars,” Bootle said.

Bootle also expects a small replacement from the election, if the CDU wins.

“I suspect nothing will do much good. This is Germany, after all,” Bootle said.

The UBS report says the next German government will likely push for greater digitalization, more decarbonization, and greater environmental and social goals.

“In this scenario, we would see renewable energy developers, automakers turning to electric vehicles, semiconductors, renewable energy operators and industrials as the top highs in the sector that are likely to benefit,” the report reads.

Does Professor Dudenhoeffer expect the elections to produce a government with a radical agenda?

“Not me. The next federal eventualor will probably come from the SPD, perhaps with less chances from the CDU. Both are very conservative and cautious. The SPD is afraid of the trade unions, which instead need to maintain the prestige quo, and the CDU protects today’s employers, i. e. the internal combustion engine faction. So elections don’t make Germany faster,” Dudenhoeffer said in an interview.

As a former Reuters Europe correspondent, I spent a few years writing about the industry.

As a former European automotive correspondent for Reuters, I spent a few years writing about the industry. I’m going to break into the hype and bravado of corporations and figure out how those giant corporations are doing. I also like to drive their beautiful machines, and their utmost modesty. I’ll tell you if the generation works too.