Here’s the results from the U.S. trade war with China:

The U. S. industry’s deficit with China has narrowed by about 15%.

The United States’ deficit with the world is larger, around 60%, or 4 times more.

It’s like a terribly wrong game of Whac-A-Mole. A little like that.

While taking a look at the effect of the 25% price lists in Mexico and Canada after Trump promised them before taking office and they promised they would go into effect on February 1, here’s a closer look at the case of China.

China has been subject to heavy price lists since 2018, imposed during Trump’s first term and maintained during former President Joe Biden. One explanation was to assume the industry’s deficit. Another solution was to penalize China for its lack of fair play.

As we mentioned, before the industrial war, the U. S. deficit with China had decreased by 15%. Here’s a look at the deficit with major trading partners:

Mexico, up more than 160%;

Canada, more than 500%;

South Korea, more than 120%;

Taiwan, more than 400%;

Vietnam, more than 275%;

Ireland, 150% more.

The United States’ deficit with India has risen to about 80%, compared to Italy’s 53% and Germany’s modest 29%.

Before we take a closer look at the 10 most sensible American imports from China and what has happened to them since the start of Trump’s first term, a quick note:

While I don’t fault Trump or anyone else for disrupting the status quo or trying new solutions to old problems, it’s not entirely clear how his new proposed Foreign Revenue Service, as he is calling it, will change anything.

Revenue from price lists would continue to return to the US Treasury, as it currently does. The only question is where in the source chain the price lists are paid, not who will ultimately foot the US tax bill. Most economists would postulate that it is the final consumer, you and me, and especially those with lower disposable income.

So, once again, the U. S. industry’s deficit with China has narrowed since 2016, the last full year on record before Trump took office, from $346. 83 million to what I expect to be just under $300 million when the annual statistics are released at the beginning of the year. February. .

The U.S. deficit with the world, however, has increased, from $735.33 million to slightly less than $1.2 trillion, which would be a record and the fourth consecutive year above $1 trillion.

And, of course, it’s not just about Trump. The era in question includes the tenure of former President Joe Biden, who kept the price lists in place.

Now that political grace knows that price lists benefit the American people, who are still recovering from nasty inflation, likely caused by Covid-19-related overspending but not helped by price lists, Let’s take a closer look at the most sensible options. 10 US imports from China in 2017, before the start of the industrial war.

I note that the top 10 most sensible imports that year accounted for 40. 38% of all imports from China that year, a year in which China imported in more than 1,100 categories (at the four-digit level, for industry professionals). Strong sampling.

I should also point out that once you take a look at the information below, you’ll probably have a strong suspicion, like many others, that there are games with “original rules” labels for those imports, or at least that the totals are refer to a limited number. number of final assemblies in some of those countries, specifically in Asia. The adjustments are dramatic.

Given the graph on the right, I’ll focus on where those U. S. imports from China are going and how small a number of them actually made it to Mexico, known as “quasi-shoring. “

To compare apples to apples, I will now rely on the accumulated knowledge of the first 11 months of each mentioned year, as this is the maximum recent knowledge that will be held by 2024.

Vietnam scored the most in the category that includes mobile phones, and China’s market share fell by 63%. Thailand and India also posted gains. Mexico’s market share decreased slightly.

So, in the end, the tariffs in place, supply chains were seemingly disrupted. Although, for the most part, China’s losses in market share were swooped up by Vietnam most often but also Taiwan, Cambodia and others.