IRVING, Texas – in the political heartland of Texas, a state Republicans have dominated for decades, Democrats say they are gaining ground – and one reason that transformation is flying to Dallas-Fort worth on Thursday.

His name is Donald trump.

While trump’s policies on immigration, trade and the economy remain popular in Republican Texas, Democrats say the President’s actions are helping them build their own base among Latinos, townspeople and higher education professionals in the Lone star state.

“The political atmosphere for Democrats in Texas is better than it has been for decades,” said Matt Engle, founder of a Democratic strategic communications firm called the Lone Star Project.

Trump still favors holding Texas in the 2020 election – he won it by nine percentage points in 2016 – but members of both parties have said Democrats are in a position to make it more of a challenge.

And while Texas Democrats have not won a state race since 1994, they nearly captured a Senate seat last year and are closing the gap in legislative and congressional elections.

“It’s fair to say the state is more competitive than it was and the threat is real, “said Texas-based Republican political consultant Matt Mackowiak, though he added,”I don’t think he’s going to play in the presidential race.”

Trump aides couldn’t be more confident in Texas, noting that since trump took office, the state has seen an increase in jobs and energy production. “We don’t take anything for granted,” said campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh, ” but have high confidence in winning in Texas.” 

Trump will not visit Texas on Thursday because he worries about losing the state. From Texarkana to El Paso, the state is a giant ATM for presidential candidates of both parties, and trump begins his day Thursday with a fundraiser in Fort worth.

Trump then heads to neighboring Johnson County, where he will help cut the ribbon on Louis Vuitton’s new leather workshop, an appearance designed to highlight his emphasis on jobs as a campaign issue.

The big event is Thursday night rally in downtown sports arena in Dallas.

As at rallies last week in Minnesota and Louisiana, trump will look to shake up his base as he faces numerous challenges back in Washington, D.C.-most notably an impeachment investigation led by house Democrats.

Trump and his aides predicted that the reaction to impeachment would help Trump. “Texans appreciate people who are straight shooters,” Murtaugh said, ” and they don’t like it when people change the rules after they lose.”

Democrats and some political analysts have been talking about this for years: “Blue Texas,” the color that television news networks use to identify States that go Democratic in presidential elections.

Supporters cite significant demographic shifts in one of the nation’s fastest-growing States. Much of that growth is happening in Hispanic communities and large urban areas of Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio; Democrats said many of those new Texans are voting with them.

“All of our new voters are going Democratic on radio 5-to-1,” said ed Espinosa, Executive Director of a political organization called Progress Texas.

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Trump is a trigger for many of those voters, according to state Democrats. His anti-immigration efforts alienate Hispanic voters; his aggressive style, including attacks on allies and lawmakers of color, has alienated many commuters, especially women.

Republicans said the demographic argument is exaggerated. There are a lot of conservative Hispanics, they said, and GOP candidates in Texas can get a fair share of their votes; same with growing suburbs.

Speaking as part of the trump campaign, Murtagh described the idea of a “Blue Texas” as “one of the greatest myths we hear about every election cycle, but it never comes true.” He said he hopes Democrats spend money in Texas “because it’s cash they won’t be able to spend defending other States like Minnesota.”

Still, there are Republican concerns that surfaced in a high-profile Senate race just last year.

O’rourke, a former member of the House, did not defeat first – term incumbent Senator Ted Cruz – but he came as close to winning as any Texas-based democratic candidate in a quarter century.

While Cruz won 50.9% to 48.3%, some analysts say the race foreshadowed a new and more politically competitive Texas. O’rourke raised about $ 80 million and activated hundreds of thousands of new voters, especially in growing urban areas.

After trump announced his rally in Dallas, O’rourke scheduled a counter-rally Thursday night in nearby Grand Prairie. In his invitation to supporters, O’rourke said, “We will not be defined by this President’s fear, his hatred, or the differences between us that he is trying to exploit.”

Cruz also sees the change of Texas. In September, he told a group of reporters that suburban voters, especially women, are “moving to the left,” and “it’s turning States with large suburban populations – States like Texas, States like Georgia, States like Arizona-much more purple.”

Referring to fellow Republicans, Cruz said, ” If we lose Texas, it’s game over.” 

Texas Republicans say they don’t see a democratic state anytime soon. Some have called 2018 an anomaly, in part because Cruz has been relatively unpopular among other Republicans. GOP members noted that incumbent Governor Greg Abbott easily won his re-election.

According to them, o’rourke will find it difficult to duplicate the presidential candidate. It’s doubtful whether Democrats would be willing to spend that kind of money on a presidential race in Texas, and might want to extend it to more competitive States.

Said Makowiak: “2018 was a very strange year in Texas.”

Trump made a late campaign stop in Houston to score Cruz, and later took credit for his victory. Some analysts wonder if Cruz didn’t cost the President some votes, but it’s impossible to say for sure.

As for 2020, Texas Republicans noted that trump did win by 9 percentage points in 2016, and a reversal of that size is hard to imagine.

Steve Munisteri, a former GOP state Chairman in Texas, says it all comes down to numbers.

Overall, in the last election, the state’s Republican candidates polled about 4.5 million votes, he said; democratic Candidates have a base of about 4 million. 

“If Republicans don’t pick their vote and Democrats do win their vote, Democrats could win the statewide race,” he said.

It’s not like the Alamo for either side; Munisteri said the exit of all those new voters in future elections is more like another battle.

“It will be like the Western front in world war I,” Munisteri said. “Trench warfare.”