The United States and Turkey have agreed to a ceasefire in northeastern Syria, a week after President Donald trump withdrew U.S. troops from the Kurdish-controlled area and effectively cleared the way for a Turkish military operation against the Kurds.

Turkey doesn’t even call a ceasefire, calling it a victory.

According to Pence, Turkey has agreed to a 120-hour (five-day) cease-fire during which the Syrian people’s protection Units, the main Syrian Kurdish fighting force in the region that has helped the U.S. fight ISIS for several years, will withdraw from a 20-mile safe zone near the border with Turkey for several years. The agreement also requires the people’s protection Units to surrender heavy weapons and dismantle their fortifications.

In return, the US will no longer impose sanctions on Turkey, and if a permanent ceasefire emerges, the US will lift sanctions already imposed on Turkey and sanctions for its invasion.

Many questions remain.

The commander of the Syrian democratic forces, Mazlum Abdi (one of which is the people’s protection Units); however, he clarified that this ceasefire is in effect in the region where fighting is currently ongoing, which means the area between the cities of RAS al-ain and tal Abiad, and said that it is necessary to discuss a ceasefire in other regions.

Pence said the US had received assurances from the people’s protection Units (YPG) that it would agree to a ceasefire. But there seems to be some mismatch between what the US and Turkey are saying and what the Kurds are saying when it comes to a ceasefire.

The agreement also does not mention Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (or his Russian and Iranian supporters), who have since been in the slaughterhouses of the Syrian Kurds. HES moved into parts of Kurdish territory, and since Assad and Turkey are technically enemies in the Syrian war, it doesn’t seem as if hell take kindly to Turkey just devouring Syrian territory.

Pence praised trump for his strong leadership in Turkey, but it seems now that Turkey has gotten exactly what it wanted and the U.S. has ceded almost the last of its leverage in Syria. And in doing so, it appears to have once again sold out its Kurdish partners.

That didn’t stop President Donald Trump from boasting that it was a great day for civilization. I am proud that the United States is sticking with me in a necessary but somewhat unconventional way, ” trump said on Twitter.

This is a great day for civilization. I am proud that the United States is following me in a necessary but somewhat unconventional way. People have been trying to make this case for years. Millions of lives will be saved. Congratulations to all!

Donald trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 17, 2019

It’s also pretty sparse on important details.

Still, both trump and Erdogan argue that this is a victory that could be exactly what matters. The deal, not even a Grand one, will give Trump a chance to claim success, while Erdogan will get everything he wants, including relief from some of the pressure of US sanctions on his country.

This is a huge victory for the Turks, Jasmin El-Gamal, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told me. Erdogan has received confirmation from the US that his concerns are legitimate. Even if the US disagrees with them, Turkey could package its actions as legitimate.

What the Kurds get from it is unfortunately less clear, except for the chance to escape the territory they fought for and spent years with little more than their lives.

The US may have helped put a temporary pause on the carnage, but trump’s decision to withdraw from the region is what allowed the carnage to happen in the first place. The ceasefire is a band-aid for the problem of administrations of their own creation.

Turkey won big. Assad and Russia can also win.

There are other players involved here besides the Kurds and Turkey. In particular, the Syrian regime and Russia, which supports it.

Assad and the Syrian Kurds made a Pact out of necessity to confront Turkey after the US completely left the region and left them without a partner. This gave Assad permission to move to part of the territory, which the Kurds with American help will win back from ISIS.

On October 22, just after the ceasefire expires, Erdogan will meet with Assad’s chief benefactor in Sochi. Russian troops have entered areas deserted by U.S. forces, and right now they are poised to become a key mediator between Assad and Turkey, which could well change the trajectory of Syria’s civil war.

Although Turkey and Assad are technically on opposite sides of this war, Erdogan is on track to achieve his main goal – to weaken and push back the Kurds. And Assad is now on his way to rebuilding a huge swath of his country.

This paves the way for a global settlement between Assad and Erdogan, said Soner Aaptay, who heads the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for near East policy and is the author of ” the New Sultan: Erdogan and the crisis of modern Turkey.”

Aaptay suggested Assad may be willing to use his new relationship with the Syrian Kurds as leverage on Turkey. If that happens, it could be a near-total Syrian takeover of Syria between Assad and Russia, he added. The US (and Europe) used to be in the picture. And the losers are the civilians and the Kurds.

The other big question mark in all this ISIS that El-Gamal told me is another big risk that remains unresolved by this ceasefire. The Syrian democratic army guarded about 12,000 ISIS prisoners and about 70,000 displaced ISIS women and children in the al-Khol camp. The agreement between the US and Turkey says they will coordinate on detention facilities.

But not all of these detention centers are in the buffer zone that Turkey is trying to create, and it seems unlikely the U.S. will take control, since its, well, not. And in any case, any chaos or confusion could not only give ISIS detainees a chance to escape, but also turn the area into fertile recruiting ground for the terrorist group.

And this will be a problem, even if the ceasefire will work in the form in which it was planned. There is now no clear alternative to what will happen if it doesn’t.