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Fresh out of a weak summer season, in which Americans largely crouched in their homes or took the roads, U. S. airlines have another looming crisis: a mild Thanksgiving and vacation season.

New research by the corporate OAG of airline analysis, as well as knowledge provided through Cirium and reviewed through Business Insider, show that the first holiday season of the COVID-19 pandemic may force carriers to make costly decisions while betting on whether the call will move. closer to Thanksgiving weekend.

Apart from the modest call for summer peaks, i. e. around Memorial Day, July 4 and Labor Day, the call has stabilized into a “new normal,” about 30% of 2019 levels. recreational remains minimal.

While airlines expect a more powerful call for the holidays, as Americans stop with their friends and family, so far there is no sign that this is happening. American Airlines and United Airlines recently recorded 25% more bookings in November than at the time in 2019. OAG found. Delta Air Lines only analyzes 12% of last year’s bookings.

This can only be a crisis for U. S. airlines suffering, according to R. W. Mann, analyst and consultant for the aviation industry.

“Thanksgiving vacations are usually a peak time of traffic and profit. For some airlines, some years, the maximum of successful days,” he said. “Christmas and New Year’s holiday week can be great, depending on the day of the week, but not as strong as Thanksgiving. “

To aggravate potential pain, many consumers may simply limit the issues to e-book travel coupons: U. S. airlines owe consumers more than $10 billion for cancelled flights at the start of the pandemic. Each coupon used is an electronic booking for which the airline does not earn new money (although this removes a liability from the airline’s balance sheet).

In addition, recreational e-bookings are sometimes less expensive than business rates, meaning airlines will notice a decrease in what they normally expect. Although electronic vacation bookings are often a heavy recreational activity, they are complemented by business travelers; for example, others return home from meetings or on-site visits. Because holiday travelers who care about the price make e-books with all low rates, airlines may make even higher profits than business travelers.

This is particularly bleak, as major US airlines have been able to do so. But it’s not the first time They try to reduce their money income as the pandemic continues to decimat income. height of pandemic lockdowns.

There is a ray of hope left: in recent times, passengers are booking flights closer to departure than ever before, hoping to know that they will be able to perform and avoid localized virus outbreaks or strict quarantine restrictions before booking.

Delta, for example, is seeing more bookings within seven days than in the past, CEO Ed Bastian said last week, talking to investors at a webinar organized through Neuberger Berman.

“People must travel in the short term because they are not in a position to make long-term plans,” Bastian said.

However, a last-minute push can create its own challenges.

Airlines typically tend to post their flight schedules about 11 months in advance, modifying express flights or itineraries as they see how the call manifests itself.

This continued largely with the pandemic, and airlines published full schedules in advance.

However, airlines “republish” their schedules between 3 and 6 weeks in advance, cutting routes and frequencies based on the latest forecast call. Following these reviews, airlines have flown about 40-50% of their capacity in 2019.

On Monday afternoon, Delta was the only one of the top 3 U. S. airlines to adjust its November schedule, according to the knowledge received through Cirium. the numbers come with flights sold through Delta but operated under its logo through regional airlines).

For November, this is a 33% relief year after year, to a relief of 42% year after year in October, suggesting that the airline forecast a last-minute accumulation in bookings.

However, it will be difficult to make plans for the Thanksgiving program. Airlines betting on an increase in overdue bookings will have to decide whether to remove aircraft from the garage and plan crews and stopovers, long before those bookings materialize.

Airlines use a variety of knowledge topics to expect real demand, adding website visits and searches.

“We’ve adjusted our schedules from 30 to forty-five days according to the month, allowing us, as it should be, to call visitors much closer,” Said Ankit Gupta, United’s head of network planning and management, in a statement.

But the magnitude of the potential Last-Minute Thanksgiving leaves little room for error: if an airline overestimates, it can also end up with half-full planes crossing the United States, operating at a loss while airlines check out to slow down their daily speed. money consumption If you underestimate demand, it would possibly disappoint consumers who can’t locate return flights for the holidays and lose potential revenue.

The realization of this outbreak is also based on the belief that the pandemic itself at that time. People have largely avoided flying due to the onerous quarantine needs established in some states, as well as anxiety about contracting the virus on a plane. , at an airport or during transit, even though the threat of transmission on the aircraft itself is quite low.

The good news for airlines is that they have temporarily adapted to the new reality of the pandemic. Plans that in the past had to be cemented weeks or months in advance, such as workers’ body logistics and appliance allocation, can now be adjusted at the last minute. Carriers have learned to incorporate remarkable flexibility into their operations.

“We adjust flight schedules closer, from 0 to 10 days after departure,” Gupta said, “examining visitor loading points and switching to larger aircraft as needed.

Even as United prepares to lay off up to 12,000 employees on October 1 and keep a component of its fleet in stock, it will keep more crews and aircraft in reserve in the event of an unforeseen last-minute demand.

“We’re going to upload flights to our program to meet the additional demand for visitors,” Gupta said. “In fact, we have kept more aircraft in our program pending precisely for that purpose. “

Additional flights can be added within the same diversity from 0 to 10 days, he added.

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