A milder than average winter is forecast for much of the country, Federal forecasters from NOAA’s climate prediction CENTER said in the official U.S. winter weather forecast released Thursday.

In particular, much of the South, along with New England, Alaska and Hawaii, has the best chance of a mild winter.

However, while this is the big picture, winter should also see big fluctuations in weather. “Even during warmer-than-average winters, periods of low temperatures and snowfall are expected,” the prediction center said.

In terms of precipitation, above average rainfall and / or snow is forecast for much of the Northern tier of the country, all the way from the Northern Rockies to the Mid-Atlantic. 

But forecasters said Thursday that they were not too sure about the forecast for December-February, which is known as a meteorological winter. 

Mike Halpert, Deputy Director of the prediction center, said that’s because there is no El Nino or La niña in the Central Pacific. Two natural climatic factors are often key factors in winter weather.

“Without El Nino or La Nia conditions, short-term climate models such as Arctic oscillation will stimulate winter weather and could lead to large temperature and precipitation swings,” Halpert said.

Climate models, such as the Arctic oscillation that can cause intensely cold temperatures in the Central and Eastern United States, are not included in this official forecast because they cannot be predicted more than one to two weeks in advance.

This forecast only predicts where above or below normal temperatures – and above or below normal precipitation-are most likely. 

This winter forecast does not specify how much precipitation will fall in the form of rain, snow or ice, only what is more or less likely overall. Snow forecasts depend on the strength and tracking of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance, the center said.

The center said drier-than-average conditions are likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma, as well as areas of Northern and Central California where drought could develop, NOAA said. 

Contribution: The Associated Press