Defense of concepts and draws conclusions about the interpretation of facts and data.

2024 A complicated year for Ukraine.

Outside of a Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region that began over the summer, surprised the Kremlin, and forced the Russian army’s high-command to scramble a defense inside its own territory, Moscow now holds the advantage in the nearly three-year long war. Russian troops continue to maul Ukrainian defensive positions in Donetsk, with the critical transportation hub of Pokrovsk increasingly under threat of encirclement. The Kursk operation, which the Ukrainian government hoped would re-allocate Russian forces away from the east, has instead devolved into another attritional grind, with Ukrainians at the front increasingly questioning whether the offensive was a smart play.

Support for an entire victory of the Ukrainian army becomes more precarious in Europe with each day. According to a survey published at the end of December, the help of a negotiated ending in the highest war in Sweden, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Gerguyy, Spain, France and Italy in the more than 12 months. All this, combined with Donald Trump’s setback to the White House on January 20, has an effect on the calculations of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The same type that once insisted on the fact that it was nothing less than the general victory over Russia was acceptable, is now talking about forge a regulation that would allow Moscow to remain around 20% of Ukraine that now occupies, although temporarily.

Just because Ukraine is struggling doesn’t mean Russia is close to victory. Despite what Russian President Vladimir Putin may tell the Russian public during his monotonous press conferences and New Years Day speeches, everything isn’t going well in the motherland.

There is no military dispute, the Russians are increasing. Russia captured around 1,500 miles of territory in 2024, seven times more than 2023, the year in which Putin had to retaliate an internal uprising of the Wagner Mercenary Group of Yevgeny Prigozhin, as well as a Ukrainian counteroffensive supported through the West. But earnings in the box have reached an incredibly high cost. Although the evaluation of people in times of war is more art than science, it will surely say that many of thousands of Russians have been lost to death or injuries since the war began in February 2022 in October, the network of Intelligence of the United States said Russia had undergone at least 600,000 patients; kyiv says that the Russians have lost more than 430,000 in the beyond 12 months.

Regardless of the figures, the figures imply an undeniable truth, even a country as wonderful as Russia cannot bear a war of wear for eternity. No country has unlimited army resources. Although Russia’s hard work disorders are not as acute as those of Ukraine, Zelensky refuses to reduce the age of the allocation to 18 years, for the discomfort of outgoing Biden Management, Putin will have to make difficult decisions if the war continues in Its existence. rate. The last thing Putin needs is to order some other mobilization, what would injected anger and panic into a Russian population that has been widely appeased since the beginning of the war. The first (and the last) Putin did this, in September 2022, around 300,000 eligible men left Russia, choosing to live a life in self -imposed exile instead of risking death in a war in which they did not believe. The Russian government prevents mobilization, such as plague, generates intelligent (but still desperate) means to fill the ranks. To date, the Kremlin grants the best bonus checks to resort to registration, the granting of legal prestige for the army service and the pardons that are balanced for criminals who enroll in the war to reconstruct the losses. But how long can it last realistically?

The Russian economy is also beginning to overheat. For the credits of the Russians, the US and European sanctions have not affected the economic production of Russia as well as those responsible for the formulation of Western policies have anticipated. The West can no longer import oil and Russian gas, however, Russian officials have been experts in locating choice markets in Asia, India and China have collected Russian crude oil in a reduction: ships that are not linked to the system Western bank. The International Monetary Fund estimated that Russia’s GDP grew 3. 6% last year, superior than the United Kingdom, Germany and France.

Despite this, the Russian economy begins to show symptoms of anguish. Most of the economy at this level is at the service of war effort. Russian men in terms of productivity who would generally be in their paintings in the civil economy are in the front, resulting in a scarcity of painting. The inflation rate is close to 10% and the value of non -unusual foods has greater. The Central Bank of Russia has maintained the interest rate at 21%, but the upper rate is a tension in companies that do not take as much as before. Russia’s global business complaints and oligarchs aligned through Putin will inevitably become more powerful if the rate is higher or will even remain where it is.

All this that 2025 will be a fundamental year for Ukraine and Russia.

Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.

The opinion problems expressed in this article are the writers themselves.